https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/360465199/south-island-brain-gain

The South Island ‘brain gain’

Liz McDonald
October 26, 2024
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Kiwi couple Emily Courtis and Simon Binney have moved to Christchurch from Sydney.supplied

Emily Courtis and Simon Binney may have swum against the tide by leaving Australia for New Zealand, but they are not the only ones.

The couple are among a growing number of people moving to the South Island, a trend which may be cushioning the south from the brain drain being reported in the North Island.

Wellington-born Courtis and Tauranga-born Binney, both aged in their early 30s, moved to Christchurch from Sydney 18 months ago, after a decade living there.

Binney works in finance in Christchurch and Courtis has just interviewed for a marketing job with a law firm.

"We bought a house here, mainly because of affordability, but also we like the outdoors and the lifestyle," said Courtis.

"We like Christchurch, we always wanted to come back to New Zealand. In terms of jobs, Christchurch is more challenging than Sydney or a big city, but in terms of work-life balance, it’s worth it."

Most new arrivals into Canterbury went to greater Christchurch.ALDEN WILLIAMS / The Press

Between the 2018 and 2023 censuses, greater Christchurch gained 46,700 new residents, a jump of almost 10%, while nationally the population increased 6%. Canterbury also gained 23,300 homes in that time.

Other South Island regions also had strong population gains.

Stats NZ estimates Canterbury’s population rose 11,200 in the year to June, of which 9100 was in greater Christchurch. Of this, a 6100 gain came from international migration, 3200 from internal migration, and 1900 from natural increase (births over deaths).

Overall the South Island gained a net 17,000 people, with 4300 of that gain from people shifting islands.

Business Canterbury chief executive Leeann Watson said the South Island at the moment is "pretty much immune to outflows of people".

In fact, rather than a "brain drain", Watson thinks the region may be experiencing a "brain gain".

"We have record strong growth in numbers of people choosing to live, work, study and invest here. A lot of that is about the cost of living, and the quality of life."

Young adults are the most likely to leave New Zealand to live overseas.Kai Schwoerer / Getty Images

Watson says there will always be young Kiwis heading off for an overseas experience (OE).

"But employers tell us a lot come back, with more work experience and life experience, and that makes them very valuable."

Jobs website Seek reported this week that while other parts of the country had a drop in job ads last month, Canterbury had a 6% increase.

Seek said Canterbury "bucked the trend for all of the other most populous regions".

Brad Olsen, chief executive and principal economist at economics consultancy Infometrics, said a brain drain normally correlates closely with difference in unemployment levels between New Zealand and Australia.

"Unemployment hits young people mainly. Some are making up for lost time after Covid.

"Or they might be thinking about doing an OE anyway, and if they lose their job and there are more across the Tasman, they might decide now’s the time to go."

Olsen says there is a lot of talk about which Kiwis leave, such as teachers and nurses departing for more pay, tradies going to Oz, young people going to the mines, and "finance and law types" going to London.

Brad Olsen, Infometrics’ principal economist, says it is hard to know exactly how many people are going in and out of the regions.Monique Ford / Stuff

"But we don’t know until there are gaps, and then it’s too late. We know what skills are coming in, but no-one asks when people are going out.

"There’s a big draw in and around Christchurch from the more affordable housing, particularly for young people. There’s probably a few factors going on there."

Infometrics, in its recent migration report, said the concentration of growth in the South Island "comes as no surprise".

"Areas which before the pandemic had a high proportion of migrants saw the largest increase in migrants since the border reopened."

Migrants workers attracted to regions in the lower South island were coming to work mainly in the accommodation and food service industries or agriculture, the report said.

Canterbury real estate agents are also reporting a steady stream of North Island arrivals, and school rolls are up around the region.

University of Canterbury has a record number of students this year.ALDEN WILLIAMS

This year Canterbury University enrolled a record number of students, with a total roll expected to reach 24,000 for the year. Lincoln University had a roll increase for the fifth year running, and is on track to exceed 5000 students by year end.

Regional development agency ChristchurchNZ estimates half of Canterbury graduates and 60% of Lincoln graduates go on to settle in Christchurch.

Analyst CoreLogic’s principal property economist, Kelvin Davidson, said people coming into New Zealand gravitate to the cities.

Greater Christchurch certainly has immigrants coming in, but other parts of Canterbury might be losing people, he said.

"There’s no doubt - someone is buying all those houses. There’s still a north-south drift, and people are being attracted to Christchurch.

Canterbury’s increase in job ads bucks the national trend.Louise Kennerley / AFR

"You hear comments about the city being back on its feet, and all nice and new."

Davidson said when people do leave, they tend to be younger and renting, so real estate sales are not heavily affected.

Louise Green, South Island general manager for recruitment company Sheffield, said they are not seeing a brain drain at senior levels, but younger, less skilled workers might be on the move.

"In fact we are noticing a drift from the North Island to the South Island, with Christchurch being perceived as the place to be."

New housing in Christchurch.ALDEN WILLIAMS / ALDEN WILLIAMS